IGC further trims world wheat output forecast to 676 mn tonne

The International Grains Council (IGC) has further trimmed its global wheat production forecast for 2012-13 to 676 million tonne as crop prospects in European countries are not bright due to unfavourable weather.

Last month, the London-based organisation had forecast world wheat output at 681 million tonne for 2012-13, lower than the record output of 695 million tonne last year.

"Wheat output is expected to decline... The forecast of world wheat production in 2012-13 is cut by 5 million tonne to 676 million tonne, some 19 million tonne below the previous year’s record," the IGC said in its latest Grains Report.

 

The EU crop forecast is reduced sharply due to reports of worse than expected winter damage and recent dry conditions, it said.

With some winter wheat in the EU and Ukraine to be replanted, total area planted to wheat crop is unlikely to show much change compared to 2011-12, it added.

China and India are the top two wheat producing countries in the world. The crop year varies from country to country. In India, wheat is planted in late October-November and the harvesting usually begins by middle of April.

According to the IGC report, the global wheat consumption is expected to decline marginally to 680 million tonne this year, as against 684 million tonne in 2011-12.

"Growth in food and industrial use is expected to be outweighed by a fall in feed, but total world consumption is forecast to show only a limited decline," it said.

With reduction in import of wheat for feed use, the world trade is likely to slump by five million tonne from a new peak of 140 million tonne last year.

But much of trade will depend on the level of feed wheat prices relative to maize, it noted.

Even world stocks at the end of 2012-13 are forecast to be down by two million tonne at 206 million tonne, as against 210 million tonne last year, it added.