 "RJD still strong in Bihar, despite fall in vote share")
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Lalu Prasad's Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) contesting the Bihar assembly elections in alliance with once arch-rival Janata Dal (United), remains a formidable force in Bihar despite erosion in his social base all these years.
The RJD's vote share declined from a peak of nearly 41 per cent in 1991 (adjusted to exclude Jharkhand) to only 20 per cent in 2014. In fact, the party's vote share fell in all successive elections, altogether seven between 1999 and 2010. It made a marginal gain of slightly more than one per cent in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections as compared to the 2010 assembly elections; this was when its current ally the JD (U) had lost a considerable chunk of voters to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).
"More than the JD (U), we see the RJD as our real competitor," a BJP leader said on condition of anonymity.
Data on elections in the state since 1990 suggests Prasad might have lost some of his appeal among other groups but his core support group of Yadavs and Muslims has remained loyal all through. In 13 elections since 1990 in the state, the RJD emerged the single largest party in terms of vote share on 10 occasions. Only in the last three elections (Lok Sabha in 2009 and 2014 and assembly in 2010) did the party lose that position. In all assembly elections since 1990, on the other hand, the combined vote share of the RJD and its allies has consistently been in the range of 25-33 per cent. And in last year's Lok Sabha elections, the combined vote share of RJD and its allies touched the 30 per cent mark yet again. In the eastern regions of the state, the RJD and its allies secured more votes than the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and managed to win seven of the 14 Lok Sabha seats. These regions are dominated by Yadavs and Muslims
"Every time there is an electoral reverse, people tend to write off the RJD. But the party has been consistently garnering a lion's share of Yadav votes, nearly 70 per cent of these all through. In the initial years, the RJD used to get the other backward classes votes too," says Rakesh Ranjan of Patna University. He has been part of many election studies in the state.
According to the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS), the RJD and its allies have been securing a majority of Yadav votes all through. At 83 per cent, it peaked in the February 2005 assembly elections and fell to 69 per cent in 2010. Yadavs, one of the most influential castes in the state, constitute nearly 15 per cent of the population. Lalu's popularity among Muslims, however, has not been consistent. From a high of 58 per cent in the October 2005 assembly elections, the RJD and its allies could manage only 32 per cent of the Muslim vote in the 2010 assembly elections.
Political observers say the better performance of the RJD and its allies in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections can be partly explained by the fact that they regained their lost ground among Muslims, capturing nearly 64 per cent of the community's votes. Muslims constitute nearly 17 per cent of the state's population. Among Dalits, another influential voting bloc in the state, the RJD has been securing a fair share of their votes, too.
According to CSDS surveys, the RJD and its allies have been securing 20-30 per cent of all Dalit votes all though. What should worry Lalu's supporters, however, is the RJD's constant erosion in support among extreme backward classes (EBCs).Political observers say it is because of the relative resilience in Lalu's social base that the RJD-led alliance could secure in excess of 10 million votes as compared to six million votes secured by the JD (U)-led alliance in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. The NDA alliance polled nearly 13 million votes in the state.
"The only way for the BJP to dis-incentivise voters from voting for the grand alliance consisting of the RJD, JD (U) and Congress is to remind them of the alleged anarchy of the Lalu days. Second, for nearly 80 per cent of Chief Minister Nitish Kumar's tenure, the BJP has been with him. It does not help them to attack Nitish," observes political commentator Jai Mrug.
