However, the global cotton output has shrunk by over 2 per cent. Despite a bumper crop production of 31.5 million bales against 28 million bales last year, exports will lead to an increase in cotton prices as most stocks would be sent to the overseas market.
This cotton year (August-July) 2007-08, the country is expected to export 8.5 million bales, up 46.5 per cent compared with the last year's 5.8 million bales. Earlier this year, estimates of Cotton Advisory Board (CAB) had put the export figure at 6.5 million bales.
The latest estimates from the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) also suggest that Indian cotton exports in 2008-09 will go further up to 9.6 million bales, with global output dipping to 26.17 million tonnes against 26.18 million tonnes in the current year.
The impact of uncontrolled cotton exports can be understood from the fact that the prices of S-6 variety of cotton jumped from Rs 19,782 a candy (1 candy = 356 kg) in April 2007 to Rs 22,107 a candy in April 2008, up 11.75 per cent.
Exports from major countries such as China and US are either stagnant or declining. Since the US registered a fall of 18 per cent in cotton acreage, its production has slipped. In order to ensure domestic availability, China's cotton export is expected to be stagnant.
China has emerged as a major buyer of Indian cotton, with over half the exports heading to the neighbouring country.
Textile ministry officials said when arrivals were at their peak in November-December last year and prices almost at the previous year's levels, textiles mills did not bother to stock up assuming that a bumper crop will assure them supplies.
But in a global market, where prices are ascertained by global supply and demand factors, prices were expected to rule firm. When asked about any expected government's measure to put a cap on exports, officials refused to comment.
