Make a cautious exit

That the US will have to leave Iraq has been clear for some time. The reason is the next presidential election, which is due two years from now, and the effect the Iraq mess will have on Republican chances. But the problem is the modus operandi or how to show defeat as victory. Now even this question has been more or less settled by the much-awaited but almost wholly leaked recommendations of the Iraq Study Group, which comprised both prominent Republicans and Democrats. The US will leave Iraq like the Cheshire cat's grin ""very slowly""but nevertheless within the next two years. This is what the Group has recommended, as also talks with Iran and Syria, which is the other main recommendation. President Bush now has to take a view on how best to implement these two recommendations. Rejection is really not an option. He has to admit that after three and a half years, his policies have failed. The national security adviser, Stephen J Hadley, is quoted as saying a major change of course in "weeks, not months," will be announced.

Its troops could, possibly, stay on nearby somewhere but Iraq itself will be left to its own devices, rather as South Vietnam was in 1975. Within a few months, it had fallen to the Viet Cong. It is perhaps to prevent a similar eventuality or, from the region's point of view, the even worse one of a semi-permanent sectarian civil war between the majority Shias (about 65 per cent) and the Sunnis that Robert Gates, the new US Defence Secretary, has said while the US could not "win," he nevertheless expected its troops to remain in Iraq for a "long time" but in very much reduced strength. The purpose, he said, would be to prevent a "regional conflagration," which is a bit rich considering who started it all. It is difficult to predict outcomes in such situations. But history shows that Vietnam, which got united, was an exception. Division happens more often, whether because of ideology as in the Koreas and the Yemens, or because of ethnic minorities as with Cyprus, Yugoslavia, etc. As Shia Iran and Sunni Syria lock horns, the US hopes to intermediate in order to prevent the oil from going out of its control. But the future of Iraq and therefore the region remains highly uncertain. This is not good news for the world, especially the major oil importers.

It is no coincidence, therefore, that China, which depends hugely on Middle Eastern oil, has begun to finally stockpile oil in Zhenhai in the eastern province of Zhejiang. It has started to store emergency supplies on the basis of a plan that was drawn up in 1993 but held in abeyance until now. This has increased the uncertainty because no one really knows how much China will buy and how quickly. It is almost certain that several other oil-importing countries will adopt the same policy, at least over the next couple of years. What India is going to do is not known but one thing is for sure. It has been planning a strategic reserve for many years now and the time may have come to start implementing the plan now.