The Russian invasion of Ukraine has upended the global recovery from the pandemic. Estimates of global output growth over the coming year have been slashed by almost a percentage point by many forecasters, including the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank. The IMF has warned of a further downside of two percentage points if financial market turmoil persists and energy prices spiral higher. China’s Covid-19 scare and associated lockdowns will only intensify this effect; even if the country reopens, until it abandons its “Covid Zero” policy, it will remain vulnerable to harsh closures in response to any further outbreaks.
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