 "Ajit Jogi, Chhatisgarh")
Former Chhattisgarh Chief Minister and Congress leader Ajit Jogi’s indication to quit the party and float a new outfit is likely to have far reaching implications in the bipolar electoral politics of the state.
Jogi would take the final decision about forming a new party in Marwahi, his native place in Bilaspur district, on June 6 where a meeting has been convened. The latest development is an outcome of Jogi being sidelined in state politics for a long time, his supporters claim. His son Amit, a sitting legislator, was expelled from the Congress in January this year for alleged anti-party activities.
Though Jogi has denied, Congress insiders say he had already made up his mind after being denied a Rajya Sabha ticket about a fortnight ago. Even the reports of a possible elevation of Rahul Gandhi as Congress President has been linked with the decision as the Jogis never enjoyed a good rapport with the Congress Vice President.
The Congress leadership in Chhattisgarh are elated as the “mere indication” of Jogi quitting the party was celeberated by fireworks outside the party’s state headquarters yesterday evening. But the party managers are ignoring the larger question - what will be the political scenario and the impact on Congress if Jogi forms his own party.
After the 2013 state polls, state units under the command of Jogi’s bête noire Bhupesh Baghel had alleged that he had sabotaged the party’s candidates in at least a dozen assembly constituencies. “Going by the Congress leaders' own version, Jogi is in a position to influence the mandate in atleast a dozen seats in Chhattisgarh,” said political pundits.
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The former chief minister who is also the member of All India Congress Committee (AICC) has a strong base among the scheduled caste voters. Though these voters have only 12 per cent vote share, but their domination in 12 seats can turn the electoral results.
Jogi would not only dent the Congress party’s structure as he already has backing of 10 legislators of the 39 seats held by the party, but the bigger concern would be the division of anti-BJP votes. He had claimed that he would confine Congress within 10 seats in the state. Even for the ruling BJP, there is no reason to smile. After all, Jogi’s target will be the BJP government. Till now, BJP was reaping political gains from the unrest in Congress’ ranks.
Jogi’s wife Renu, who is also a Congress legislator, has deepened the suspense over her husband’s next political move. “Jogi ji took the decision in anger and I wish a compromise was reached, and Jogi ji remains in Congress,” she said. The Congress leaders feel that it would not be an easy task to run a party with limited resources for two years (as state goes to poll in 2018).
Beyond doubts, Jogi is a mass leader and no one enjoys his stature in the Chhattisgarh Congress. But his towering ambitions means that he will never agree to be the number two. This has resulted in the present revolt as Jogi has been completely sidelined in the state's party affairs.
If Jogi floats a regional party, he has the potential to win about 5-10 seats. And in case there is a hung assembly as Chhattisgarh is a small state with 90 seats, Jogi will prove to be a hard bargainer.
