-
ALSO READ
Inside story of Delhi coronavirus case: From dinner at Hyatt to isolation
Covid-19: Govt now bans passengers from Afghanistan, Philippines, Malaysia
Coronavirus wrap: India reports second patient; China death toll over 300
Coronavirus wrap: Chinese doctor who first warned about virus outbreak dies
Coronavirus: Are people really hoarding toilet paper, non-perishables?
-
India's growth could slip below 3 per cent in the current fiscal if COVID-19 proliferates within India, lockdown extended and global economy slips into recession, a KPMG report said.
It said the three major contributors to GDP -- private consumption, investment and external trade -- will all get affected due to the spread of the pandemic.
The KPMG report presented three scenarios to explain the economic effects of COVID--19. In the scenario of quick retraction across globe by April-end to mid-May, the report said "India's growth for 2020-21 may be in the range of 5.3 to 5.7 per cent, though this scenario looks distant at this moment".
In the second scenario where India is able to control COVID-19 spread, but there is a significant global recession, the KPMG report said India's growth is expected to be in the range of 4-4.5 per cent.
However if the pandemic proliferates and there is global recession then it would be a double whammy for the economy as it will have to bear the brunt of both domestic and global demand destruction, KPMG report said.
"Prolonged lockdowns would exacerbate economic troubles. India's growth may fall below 3 per cent under this scenario," it added.
These growth projections compare to an estimated 5 per cent growth rate in 2019-20.
The report said steps taken to contain the virus spread such as the nationwide lockdown have brought economic activity to a near-standstill, with impacts on both consumption and investment.
"While Indian businesses, barring afew sectors, can possibly insulate themselves from the global supply chain disruptions caused by the outbreak due to relatively lower reliance on intermediate imports, theirexports to COVID-19 infected nations could take a hit," it said.
Dear Reader,
Business Standard has always strived hard to provide up-to-date information and commentary on developments that are of interest to you and have wider political and economic implications for the country and the world. Your encouragement and constant feedback on how to improve our offering have only made our resolve and commitment to these ideals stronger. Even during these difficult times arising out of Covid-19, we continue to remain committed to keeping you informed and updated with credible news, authoritative views and incisive commentary on topical issues of relevance.
We, however, have a request.
As we battle the economic impact of the pandemic, we need your support even more, so that we can continue to offer you more quality content. Our subscription model has seen an encouraging response from many of you, who have subscribed to our online content. More subscription to our online content can only help us achieve the goals of offering you even better and more relevant content. We believe in free, fair and credible journalism. Your support through more subscriptions can help us practise the journalism to which we are committed.
Support quality journalism and subscribe to Business Standard.
Digital Editor
RECOMMENDED FOR YOU