New candidates make South Mumbai result unpredictable

Who will be Ralph Nader of Mumbai South Lok Sabha elections?

The results in the constituency which now spans from Mumbai’s southern-most point, the Gateway of India, to mill lands of Parel, Lalbaug and Worli depend on who plays a bigger spoilsport. If Maharashtra Navanirman Sena’s (MNS) Bala Nandgaonkar eats into the Marathi-mill worker votes, Shiv Sena’s Mohan Rawle could find it tough to make it to the lower house of Parliament for the sixth time.

Similarly, Bahujan Samaj party’s Haji Shaikh Mohammed Ali is making life tough for sitting Member of Parliament and Congress candidate Milind Deora, whose father represented the Mumbai South constituency four times. But that was when the voters were confined to the elite Malabar Hill and middle-class localities of Girgaum and Kalbadevi.

 

Like Nader, a consumer rights and environment activist, who spoilt Democratic presidential aspirant Al Gore’s chances in states like New Hampshire and Florida, the two candidates could upset the calculations of the main contenders in Mumbai South. Deora also has to contend with Meera Sanyal, ABN Amro’s country head who is on a sabbatical, and Mona Shah, an ophthalmologist, who is Professional’s Party of India’s candidate. While the two professionals are threatening to eat into Deora’s upper middle class vote, the real challenge is coming from Mohammed Ali.

The BSP candidate, who enjoys a near monopoly over the transport business in the dock area, is known for making generous donations for almost all festivals, be it to Ganesh Mandals or to Buddha Jayanti Committees. With nearly 64 per cent population living in chawls, Mohammed Ali is hoping to garner a sizeable chunk of votes, especially from Muslims.

The 33-year-old US-educated Congress candidate is selling fund allocation through the Jawaharlal Nehru Urban Renewal Mission as his key achievement during his first term in Parliament. He is trying to counter the criticism on job loss and economic slowdown by pointing to the 9 per cent growth rate achieved during three of the first four years of United Progressive Alliance’s tenure.Deora has roped in HDFC Chairman Deepak Parekh and Godrej group Chairman Adi Godrej to make his case stronger. Besides, he is banking on the fact that independent candidates did not garner more than 1.4 per cent votes in the 1999 and 2004 elections in Mumbai South.

Rawle, who has represented Mumbai South central five terms, but had to contest from Mumbai South, which includes his erstwhile constituency, is banking heavily on the mill lands and dock area residents. He is using Shiv Sena’s “son of the soil plank” and also playing the terror card by citing terrorist attacks last year and in 2006.

While Deora is countering Rawle’s hold over mill workers by citing the purchase of mill land by companies like Kohinoor, a company where Maharashtra Chief Minister Manohar Joshi has interests.

The 60-year-old Shiv Sainik’s task is also made tougher by Nandgaonkar, his former party colleague who has now switched over Raj Thackeray’s MNS. On expected lines, Nandgaonakar’s campaign is focused on locals losing jobs to outsiders. The 51-year-old MNS candidate has already been a giant killer by defeating deputy chief minister Chagan Bhujbal in the 1995 assembly elections.

Apart from Nandgaokar, another problem for Rawle is to find acceptance among Gujarati and Marwari communities though have traditionally voted from Bharatiya Janta Party, Shiv Sena’s ally in the state. In recent years, however, they developed a fear of the Sena as they are often targeted by Balasaheb Thackeray’s men for donations.

On her part, Sanyal has prepared her own draft master plan, for which she is seeking inputs from the voters, and has also cited her contribution to creating jobs — a business process outsourcing unit set up by ABN Amro in Parel. While the 20 candidates are trying to come up with their unique selling proposition, there is a common theme: Redevelopment of chawls which dot the textile mill and dock areas.