Soyoil prices down on tariff revision

WEEKLY COMMODITIES OUTLOOK

Soyoil: Seen down In the mid-week. Domestic prices are seen down mid-week following downward tariff revision of soy and palm oils. This revision has, overall, made the oils cheaper. Also, there may be more imports.

Till date, in the current oil year (November-October), edible oil imports have crossed 43 lakh tonne mark and are likely to touch 52 lakh tonne by the year-end. Last year, India's edible oil imports were at 44 lakh tonne.

Spot prices are likely to touch Rs 356-57 per 10 kg by mid-week, but market players expect prices to turn slightly bullish and return to present levels of Rs 360, following an important oil conference, GlobOil, in the weekend, said Si Kannan, analyst with Sharekhan Commodities.

Gold: Seen up but with eyes on the FOMC meet on Tuesday. The yellow metal is up on buying frenzy, in spite of strengthening greenback.

"Gold seems to have temporarily given up its negative correlation with the dollar and has been advancing along the US currency last week," said V Sivaramakrishnan, an analyst with Karvy Commodities.

Euro, hampered by German elections, fell below the 1.22 level against the dollar, thereby lending support to the greenback.

Gold's rise continues, supported by physical demand, which has been coming from ever, feel such high price levels (about $460/ounce) may affect some physical buying, despite festive demand. However, funds are seen shifting investment from crude oil and currency to bullion, amid increasing uncertainty over the global economy.

Market awaits for the FOMC meet for a clearer direction. The expectation is for the Fed to increase its "funds target 25 basis points and to continue measured tightening," a Refco daily note said.

Crude oil: Check out arbitrage opportunities in between NCDEX December crude oil contract and MCX December brent crude oil contract.

Urad: Down on fresh arrivals and good rains. The new crop has arrived in most markets, thereby keeping prices low. Further, crop productions in Gujarat, Maharashtra and Karnataka are likely to be better than expected due to recent rains.

NCDEX October contract is currently about Rs 1,700 per 100 kg and is expected to fall to Rs 1,660, traders said.

Guarseed: Seen down. Despite slow arrivals due to rains, the prevailing prices are lower and expected to move down even further, as rains continue in crucial guar regions, primarily Jodhpur and Bikaner.

This is likely to keep prices down, as the late rains are benefiting crop yield, analysts said. Market e xpects NCDEX October contract to touch a low of Rs 1,600 per 100 kg.