Dilution Of Ntrs Schemes Proves Dear For Naidu

The dilution of some of the populist promises made by N T Rama Rao means trouble for Chief Minister N Chandrababu Naidu. Such is the anger among those affected that despite optimistic declarations by the Telugu Desam, Naidu faces the prospect of winning lesser seats in the forthcoming elections.

The Telugu Desam led by Rama Rao wrested power from the Congress in the 1994 assembly elections on three major promises: Rs 2 per kg rice to poor, prohibition and power supply to the farm sector at a negligible charge.

Rama Rao kept his promise when he took office. But, Naidu, who came to power in August 1995, watered down these the commitments.

 

The price of rice has increased to Rs 3.50 per kg and the quota per family has been reduced. Prohibition has been lifted and farmers are currently being charged 13 paise per unit for power, with possible revision if the distribution system is privatised.

This has angered voters from rural areas, who account for almost 72 per cent of the electorate. Crop failures and suicides by farmers due to indebtedness has only added to Naidus problems.

A fall in the number of seats may mean disaster for Naidu. Not only will it reduce his bargaining power in the UF but could also trigger dissension within the regional party. This time, a sharp decline in the percentage of votes, for both the TDP/allies and the Congress, is expected, to the benefit of the BJP.

However, in spite of the rise in the percentage of votes polled, the BJP may not gain much in terms of seats, while the Congress, despite a sharp decline could win half a dozen additional seats more than it got in 1996, all at the expense of Telugu Desam.

The partys problems can be gauged from the fact that despite working on its manifesto for almost a month now, with help of the best from related fields, the party has not been able to release it. Naidu has the best resources among all in the fray and has the advantage of having started campaigning early. The party is using all kinds of publicity material and media video and audio cassettes, pamphlets and posters and cable television to put its achievements over 26 months across. A 2-lakh strong force of trained communicators has also been lined up in a systematic and organised manner for campaign purposes.

Naidu has a gruelling schedule during campaign days. He starts at 9 am, addresses half a dozen public meetings, motors to another two or three places after sunset (when the helicopter cannot be used), before calling it a day before midnight.

Congress, which was complacent and was probably banking on the anti-establishment wave in the state, has got a boost from Sonia Gandhis entrance. Her presence has charged the Congress cadre, even though she may only have a marginal impact on voters. However, she has checked the fall in the partys vote-base in the state vis-a-vis the 1996 election.

The BJP entered the fray with an advantage Rajya Sabha members Mohan Babu and D Venkateswara Rao, both elected as Telugu Desam candidates, and about six cinema personalities joined the party in the state. The party can still attract more people from the Telugu Desam and has also been able to fuel dissensions in the Congress.

Congress leader Mudragadda Padmanabhams decision to join BJP gives a boost to the party, since he is said to have the support of the Kapu community, which is next in importance only to the Khammas and is known to have tilted the balance between the Congress and the TDP in the coastal districts in the past. However, considering that the BJP could have only one MP from the state in the 1980s and also in the 1990s, the party has been able to attract considerable attention this time.

Prime ministerial candidate Atal Behari Vajpayee set the tone by asking voters to give the party a chance.

Through an alliance with the NTR-TDP, the BJP has also ensured that the anti-establishment and anti-Congress votes do not get divided.