Weekly policy watch: RBI MPC, GDP data, US trade talks in focus this week

India's policy calendar this week is packed with the RBI's June review, FY26 GDP data, India-US trade talks, GST numbers, PMI readings and fuel export levy changes

India enters the first week of June with a crowded economic and policy calendar. that will test how policymakers read growth, inflation, trade, and fiscal signals at a time of global uncertainty.

 

The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI's) bi-monthly monetary policy review will be the central event. The week will also bring the first annual GDP release under the revised calendar, a fresh round of India-US trade talks, May GST revenue numbers, and PMI readings.

RBI policy review to set market tone

The RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is scheduled to meet from June 3 to June 5. According to a Business Standard poll, the MPC is expected to keep the policy repo rate unchanged at 5.25 per cent, primarily driven by external challenges arising due to the West Asia crisis.

 

 

Markets will also track whether the RBI turns more cautious on food prices, crude oil, global financial volatility and the rupee.

GDP data to test growth momentum

The January-March quarter GDP data and provisional estimates for FY26 are scheduled for release on June 5. The data will be important because it comes under the revised national accounts release calendar.

 

The numbers will help assess the strength of private consumption, government capital expenditure, manufacturing, construction, and services.

India-US trade talks back in focus

A US delegation is in India from June 1 to June 4 for talks on an interim trade agreement and the broader bilateral trade pact. The discussions are expected to cover market access, tariffs, non-tariff barriers and trade facilitation.

 

The talks come at a time when global trade rules are shifting and supply chains are being reviewed. Any progress could matter for sectors such as pharmaceuticals, textiles, gems and jewellery, agriculture, digital trade and energy.

GST data to show demand signal

The GST revenue data for May will be watched as a high-frequency indicator of consumption, imports and formal-sector activity. The numbers will also show whether tax buoyancy seen in earlier months is being sustained.

 

For policymakers, the GST print will be useful in reading the fiscal position before the expenditure cycle gathers pace in the new financial year.

PMI readings to track business activity

The manufacturing PMI, which came out on June 1, rose to 55.0 in May from 54.7 in April. The growth was supported by resilient domestic demand, stronger new orders and higher output, even as cost pressures remained among the steepest in nearly four years.

 

Services PMI, which comes out on June 3, will be watched to see whether the services sector continues to offset softness in manufacturing seen in earlier months. The April services PMI stood at 58.8.

Fuel export levy changes take effect

The Centre’s revised export duties on petrol, diesel and aviation turbine fuel take effect from June 1. Domestic fuel duties remain unchanged.

 

The move will matter for refiners, export margins and government revenue, while also signalling how the Centre is responding to volatile global oil and product markets.