Bihar election 2025: How caste coalitions will drive strategies and outcome

With new caste survey data in hand, parties are recalibrating alliances, seat-sharing, and candidate choices, as traditional blocs like Yadavs, Kurmis, and EBCs remain pivotal

Bihar is all set to go to polls soon, and the state’s caste map will again be in focus. The alliances between parties, the choice of candidates, and electoral promises will be centred around the caste question. To add spice to the Bihar elections, the 2022 caste survey has infused fresh, granular data that parties will use in their seat arithmetic. For voters, the contest will be about more than development or law and order, as it will test whether long-established caste coalitions still hold, or whether newly assertive groups can reshape outcomes.

 

Caste has been the organising principle of Bihar’s politics since independence. In the early decades post-independence, Congress governments were dominated by upper-caste elites, including Bhumihars, Rajputs, and Brahmins, who controlled land, bureaucracy, and education. Their dominance began to erode in the 1960s and 70s, when regional challengers and social movements pushed back, laying the groundwork for the upheavals that would come with the Mandal era.

 

 

Karpoori Thakur and the JP Movement 

Long before the Mandal Commission shook Indian politics, Bihar had already seen the stirrings of backward caste mobilisation. Karpoori Thakur, a socialist leader from the Nai (barber) caste, symbolised those aspirations. As chief minister in 1978, his decision to reserve government jobs and education seats for backward classes was a turning point. For the marginalised, it was long-awaited recognition, and for the upper castes, it was an unsettling shift in power.

 

At the same time, the JP Movement of the 1970s, led by Jayaprakash Narayan, created a melting pot for Bihar’s future leadership. It was a revolt against corruption, inflation, unemployment, and misgovernance, but in Bihar’s soil, its rhetoric of “Total Revolution” fused with demands for social justice. Karpoori was a close ally of JP, and together they created both the ideological basis and leadership pipeline for caste-based mobilisation.

 

The Mandal Commission and its aftermath 

Mandal politics reshaped Bihar more decisively than anywhere else. The old Congress-upper caste axis collapsed, replaced by a new coalition of Other Backward Castes (OBCs). Lalu Prasad Yadav, riding this wave in 1990, turned the Yadavs into a dominant political force. His Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) stitched a durable Yadav-Muslim alliance that defined the state’s politics through the 1990s and 2000s.

 

In response, Nitish Kumar positioned himself as a counterpoint, a Kurmi leader who spoke the language of governance and development, while quietly building his own coalition of Kurmis, Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs), and non-Yadav OBCs. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), meanwhile, emerged as the new home for upper castes, combining their support with sections of OBCs.

 

The result was a new equilibrium where politics became a constant contest of coalition-building between Yadavs, Kurmis, Koeris, Dalits, EBCs, and upper castes, with each group becoming a decisive vote bank in its pockets of influence. And those very equations continue to define the state’s politics and would be very much looked forward to as the Bihar state election approaches.

 

Yadavs: The largest OBC bloc 

Yadavs, at 14.27 per cent of Bihar’s population, are the single largest OBC group. Concentrated in rural areas and among medium landholders, they gained unprecedented political power under Lalu Prasad Yadav. Since 1990, the RJD has relied heavily on the Yadav-Muslim (17-18 per cent) combination. Even today, under Tejashwi Yadav, this coalition remains the party’s backbone, despite repeated attempts by rivals to splinter it.

 

Kurmis: Building a farmer-led leadership 

Though Kurmis make up only 2.87 per cent of the population, their influence far exceeds their numbers. Traditionally prosperous cultivators, they invested early in education and organisation. Their most prominent leader is Nitish Kumar, who has been Bihar’s chief minister for nearly two decades. Through the Samata Party and later JD(U), Nitish turned Kurmis into a pivot caste, using their support to build wider alliances.

 

Kurmis act as swing voters, and their loyalties have often dictated Bihar’s coalitions. Whether allied with BJP or RJD, the JD(U) has relied on Kurmi consolidation to remain relevant.

 

Koeris: The traditional cultivators 

The Koeris, or Kushwahas, account for about 4.2 per cent of Bihar’s population and form the third major OBC bloc after Yadavs and Kurmis. Traditionally cultivators, they have built influence in pockets of central Bihar.

 

Upendra Kushwaha has been their most visible face, repeatedly floating parties, shifting alliances, and ensuring Koeris remain courted by both RJD and NDA. In seats like Karakat, where Koeris are concentrated, they often decide outcomes. Koeris hold sway in central Bihar and constituencies like Karakat, where their numbers ensure repeated representation. Both RJD and NDA court them heavily.

 

Rajputs: The martial upper caste 

Rajputs were once the power elite of Bihar politics, pillars of the Congress system alongside Brahmins and Bhumihars. With large landholdings and political prestige, they dominated ministries and legislatures before the Mandal shift.

 

Their dominance declined after the 1990s, but Rajputs remain a crucial BJP constituency. Rajput leaders across parties ensured the community’s representation has often exceeded their population share (3.45 per cent). Their clout in candidate selection remains intact.

 

Bhumihars: Landed upper caste 

The Bhumihar population constitutes about 2.86 per cent of Bihar's total population. Historically, landowners and education-builders, Bhumihars were central to Congress-era politics. They produced leaders like Shri Krishna Sinha, Bihar’s first chief minister, and dominated the administration.

 

Post-Mandal, many drifted towards the BJP, which crafted an upper caste-OBC coalition. In districts along the Ganga belt, Bhumihars continue to be influential, even if their statewide clout has diminished.

 

Other groups and shifts 

The rise of Dalits and EBCs is perhaps the most significant transformation in recent decades. Together, Dalits (19.65 per cent) and EBCs (36 per cent) make up more than half of Bihar’s population. Once fragmented, they are now asserting a distinct political identity.

 

The Paswans, or Dusadhs (5.3 per cent), led by Ram Vilas Paswan and now his son Chirag Paswan, have built a loyal Dalit vote base. The Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) uses this to bargain for seats in alliances.

 

EBCs, meanwhile, have emerged as a powerful but heterogeneous bloc. No longer subsumed under OBC politics, they demand separate recognition, reservation benefits, and representation. Their sheer numbers make them decisive in close contests, though sub-caste rivalries sometimes fragment their strength.

 

What it means for today’s politics 

The 2022 caste survey has sharpened the picture. It confirms what politicians have long known: that OBCs and EBCs, together around 63 per cent, are the kingmakers of Bihar. The RJD continues to bank on Yadavs and Muslims, the JD(U) relies on Kurmis, EBCs, and non-Yadav OBCs, and the BJP combines upper castes with sections of OBCs and Dalits. Meanwhile, smaller parties like LJP survive by mobilising specific caste bases and negotiating alliances.

 

Despite rhetoric of governance and development, caste still shapes every strategy: which candidate is fielded where, which promises are made, and how alliances are stitched together.