Delhi elections: AAP's vote share drops by 10% - what led to the decline?

Delhi Assembly elections: The AAP saw its vote share drop by nearly 10 percentage points, from 53.57% in 2020 to 43.55% in 2025. This decline translated into a major seat loss

The 2025 Delhi Assembly elections marked a major shift in voter preference, leading to a historic victory for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and ending their 27-year-long absence from power. On the other hand, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), which had been in power since 2015, suffered a substantial decline both in its vote share and the seat count.   

 

The AAP saw its vote share drop by nearly 10 percentage points, from 53.57 per cent in 2020 to 43.55 per cent in 2025. This decline translated into a major seat loss — from 62 seats in 2020 to just 22 seats in 2025, marking a loss of 40 seats in the 70-seat Assembly.  

 

 

Meanwhile, the BJP witnessed a 7.3 percentage point increase, rising from 38.51 per cent in 2020 to 45.76 per cent in 2025. This resulted in a gain of 40 seats, allowing the party to form the government.   

 

The third major contender — Indian National Congress (INC) — also experienced a minor revival, with its vote share increasing from 4.26 per cent to 6.36 per cent. However, this did not help the party win any seats, marking its third consecutive failure to open an account in the Delhi Assembly.  

 

Factors behind AAP's vote-share decline  

 

1. Loss of voter base: Despite retaining its stronghold in Dalit and Muslim-dominated constituencies, the AAP lost ground in several other regions. It won eight out of 12 Scheduled Caste-reserved seats and six out of seven Muslim-majority constituencies, but this was not enough to counterbalance its overall decline.  

 

2. Muslim vote division: In 2020, Muslim voters largely backed AAP. However, in 2025, a significant portion shifted to the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) and Congress, leading to AAP’s defeat in Mustafabad, where AIMIM’s entry "helped" the BJP win by 17,578 votes.  

 

3. BJP’s popularity and PM Modi’s 'guarantee': Many voters who had previously supported the BJP in Lok Sabha elections but not in Assembly polls changed their stance, trusting PM Modi’s leadership and his guarantees of continued free welfare schemes.  

 

4. Congress' role in AAP’s loss: The Congress, despite not winning any seats, increased its vote share by 2 percentage points, eroding AAP’s support base in several constituencies.  

 

5. BJP’s gains among Muslim voters: The BJP also made unexpected inroads among Muslim voters, securing 12-13 per cent of the community’s votes, compared to just 3 per cent in 2020.  

 

Geographical analysis of AAP’s performance 

 

AAP's victories were largely concentrated in Central, Northeast, and South Delhi, where Dalit and working-class voters remained loyal to the party. However, it faced a near wipeout in West and North Delhi, where the BJP dominated.  

 

- Central Delhi: Won 6 seats (Patel Nagar, Karol Bagh, Sadar Bazar, Ballimaran, Matia Mahal, Chandni Chowk).  

- Northeast & East Delhi: Won 5 seats (Seelampur, Babarpur, Gokalpur, Seemapuri, Kondli).  

- South Delhi: Won 6 seats (Kalkaji, Okhla, Tughlaqabad, Badarpur, Deoli, Ambedkar Nagar).  

- West Delhi: Won only 2 seats (Tilak Nagar, Delhi Cantonment).  

- North Delhi: Won only 3 seats (Sultanpur Majra, Burari, Kirari).  

 

Despite the decline, AAP still retained a strong base among Delhi’s poor, who benefited from its free electricity, water, and public service schemes.  

 

Delhi election results 2025: In a nutshell

 

AAP’s 10 percentage point drop in vote share in the 2025 Delhi Assembly elections had a drastic impact, reducing its seat count from 62 in 2020 to 22 in 2025. The BJP, on the other hand, capitalised on this decline, leveraging PM Modi’s popularity and its rising vote share to secure a decisive victory. The division of Muslim votes, Congress' marginal resurgence, and BJP’s unexpected gains among Muslim voters further contributed to AAP’s downfall.  

 

While the AAP retained support in Dalit and Muslim-majority constituencies, its overall influence in Delhi significantly weakened, marking a turning point in the capital's political landscape.