Delhi election results: AAP voters shifted more to BJP than Congress

A brief history of Delhi Assembly polls since 2008 illustrates why credit for AAP's loss should go to BJP's groundwork and outreach, and blame to AAP's failure to retain its base, rather than Congress

The Congress couldn’t win a single seat in the Delhi Assembly polls. However, for the Congress’ Delhi unit leaders, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP)’s loss is seen as revenge served cold. The Congress leadership has almost exulted in AAP’s defeat, hopeful that with AAP weakened, it could win the next Assembly polls in 2030. Several Opposition leaders, however, have blamed Congress for causing AAP’s loss due to its unwillingness to enter into a seat-sharing agreement.

 

Both assessments—the Congress’ claims of ensuring AAP’s defeat and the Opposition’s allegations against Congress—are misplaced.

 

As evident from the election results and the profuse manner in which Prime Minister Narendra Modi acknowledged the support for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) from Purvanchal voters and Delhi’s women electors, significant sections of AAP’s support base shifted to the BJP in the 2025 Delhi Assembly polls.

 

 

It’s been 11 years since the 2013 Assembly polls when AAP debuted in Delhi politics, reducing the Congress, which had ruled Delhi continuously from 1998 to 2013, to a poor third. 

According to estimates, in the 2025 Assembly polls, Congress candidates undercut AAP candidates in 14 seats, including in New Delhi and Jangpura seats, where AAP chief Arvind Kejriwal and his former deputy Manish Sisodia lost, respectively.

 

Some Opposition leaders, like Bharat Rashtra Samithi’s K T Rama Rao, argued that the victory margins of BJP candidates over their AAP counterparts in these seats were smaller than the votes polled by Congress candidates.

 

A brief history of Delhi Assembly polls since 2008 illustrates why the credit for AAP’s loss should primarily go to the BJP’s groundwork and outreach, and the blame to AAP’s failure to retain its base, rather than Congress.

 

 

 

AAP’s entry into Delhi’s electoral politics in 2013 significantly impacted the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and, more prominently, the Congress.

 

In the 2008 Delhi Assembly polls, the vote shares were: Congress 40.31 per cent, BJP 36.34 per cent, and BSP 14.05 per cent.

 

At the time, the BJP was perceived as a party of Delhi's trading castes, Punjabis, and Banias. Congress, recognising Delhi’s demographic changes, increased representation for leaders from Bihar and eastern Uttar Pradesh (Purvanchal). It also maintained strong connections with the city's significant Dalit population, though the BSP emerged as a challenger in 2008.

 

In 2013, with AAP’s entry, vote shares were: BJP 33.07 per cent, AAP 29.49 per cent, Congress 24.55 per cent, and BSP 5.35 per cent.

 

The BJP’s vote share dip from 2008 to 2013 showed that some of its supporters voted for AAP. However, AAP’s outreach among auto drivers, mainly from Purvanchal, and also Delhi's Scheduled Caste communities, especially Valmikis, significantly dented Congress and BSP support bases.

 

The 2015 Assembly polls reinforced that AAP had primarily absorbed support from Congress, BSP, smaller parties, and Independents, while retaining some BJP supporters from Lok Sabha polls. In the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, BJP secured 46.4 per cent in Delhi.

 

The 2015 Delhi Assembly polls vote shares were: AAP 54.34 per cent, BJP 32.19 per cent, Congress 9.65 per cent, and BSP 1.30 per cent.

 

By 2020, AAP’s vote share slightly declined to 53.57 per cent. A CSDS-Lokniti post-poll study indicated increased support from women voters, including traditional BJP and Congress voters, contributed to AAP’s strong performance.

 

Notably, BJP’s vote share rose to 38.51 per cent in 2020, its best since 1993. Congress’ vote share plummeted to 4.26 per cent. AAP seemed to offset votes lost to BJP by drawing more from Congress. 

 

In the 2025 Delhi Assembly polls, BJP increased its vote share to 45.56 per cent. Adding its allies’ shares—Janata Dal (United) at 1.06 per cent and Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) at 0.53 per cent—the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) secured 47.15 per cent.

 

AAP’s vote share declined to 43.57 per cent, a 10 per cent drop from 2020. Congress’ vote share marginally rose by 2.08 percentage points, from 4.26 per cent in 2020 to 6.34 per cent in 2025.

 

In actual votes, BJP received 4.32 million, AAP 4.13 million, and Congress 601,922. BJP led AAP by 189,212 votes in Delhi.

 

In the Haryana Assembly polls (October 2024), BJP secured 5.54 million votes against Congress’ 5.43 million, with a margin of 118,198 votes. AAP garnered 248,455 votes. Congress and AAP had no alliance in Haryana.

 

Did AAP cause Congress’ defeat in Haryana, where parts of Congress’ Dalit base shifted to BJP? Or did Congress cause AAP’s defeat in Delhi, where sections of AAP’s support base moved to BJP?