Divide and fail

Pakistan establishment is more polarised than ever, making it less likely that the state’s problems will be addressed.

Is Pakistan headed for yet another military coup? Or another election? The signals emanating from Islamabad and Rawalpindi are unclear, but a leaked memo this month suggesting the civilian government had sought US help to rein in the powerful military-ISI complex has unleashed a fresh set of tensions between traditional adversaries in the Pakistani establishment. Certainly both sides seem to be involved in an intricate two-step of threat and placation. Mr Gilani’s outburst last week warning of conspiracies against the civilian government and describing the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) and the military of running “a state within a state” had analysts sit up and take notice. Few civilian governments in Pakistan, which has been ruled by the military for 33 of its 64-year history, have been so directly confrontational. Coming just when tensions between the US and the armed forces ratcheted up after Pakistani soldiers were killed in a border skirmish, Mr Gilani’s statements assume fresh significance.

 

Not that the military establishment seems particularly cowed. Last weekend, Pakistan’s powerful army chief, General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, not only gave President Asif Ali Zardari’s official dinner in honour of Dai Bingguo, representative of Hu Jintao, the go-by, he did the same for a dinner hosted by Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani. This is close to insubordination to the commander-in-chief and the country’s executive head. Yet, not only does General Kayani remain in harness in his Rawalpindi headquarters, both Mr Zardari and Mr Gilani have hastened to assure Parliament that there were no plans to dismiss either him or Lt Gen Ahmad Shuja Pasha, the head of ISI, partners in the alternative power structure in Pakistan. Messrs Kayani and Pasha are not given to articulating their thoughts publicly — they prefer to do so via favoured media, which has duly suggested foul intent by the civilian government (which, in its turn, claims the incriminating memo is forged). But it is clear that this upping of the ante is a result of a new threat perception by Rawalpindi. The US has responded to aggressive Pakistani feints by threatening to withhold funding, and it clearly plans to remain a player in Af-Pak even as it reaches across to strengthen ties with India. The default option of a coup, therefore, probably looks less attractive right now.

That is why much is being read into the massive rally held by former cricketer-turned-politician Imran Khan on Christmas Day. Unlike the ruling Pakistan Peoples Party, Mr Khan lacks a popular base, but is known to enjoy the backing of the military and conservative elements of the Pakistani establishment. He wisely chose an agnostic topic to rail against: corruption. Even so, the 100,000-odd people who turned up at a rally can be considered a proxy for the “popular support” the military can muster if it comes to a contest at the hustings. But the deeply polarised nature of the Pakistani polity is unlikely to solve the deeper problems of a failed state.