Agriculture Falls Behind

Now that the monsoon has receded from the north and is on its way out of other areas as well, it has become amply clear that the current kharif season will not be a plentiful one. Unlike last year when the superlative performance of the agricultural sector had lent respectability to the national income numbers, the sector may not be able to contribute much to boosting the economic outlook this year. In any case, expectations on this count were not too high this time because of the last year's high benchmark. But a good monsoon could have allowed the trend growth rate of 2 to 3 per cent being achieved.

 

Though the information available is still preliminary in nature and the crop harvesting in most parts of the country is some distance away, the country will be lucky if the farm sector can avoid a repeat of 1997-98 when output actually fell.

Statistically, this season's monsoon has not been all that bad and will perhaps go down in the meteorological history as the 12th normal one in a row. The cumulative rainfall for the country as a whole since the beginning of the season on June 1, falls within the parameters of normalcy -- 10 per cent plus or minus the long-term average. However, vast tracts in states like Rajasthan, Gujarat, Haryana, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Orissa and Madhya Pradesh have experienced unsatisfactory precipitation. The timing of the rainfall, too, has been skewed, resulting in either poor or delayed sowing or withering away of the planted crops.

Major production shortfalls are consequently anticipated in most food and commercial crops, barring rice and sugarcane. The first advance estimates released by the agriculture ministry project the decline to be as high as over two million tonnes in coarse cereals, and nearly half-a-million tonne each in oilseeds and pulses. The fibre crops -- jute and cotton -- are projected to be down by 0.4 and 0.3 million bales, respectively. The only gainer among commercial crops is forecast to be sugarcane and among foodgrains rice, chiefly in irrigated areas.

The bulk of the increase in rice is anticipated in Punjab where much of the cotton acreage has been diverted to this crop. Though these figures will change as more and precise information becomes available, the trend seems likely to endure.

A broad conclusion that can safely be drawn from this experience is that the much talked about resilience of the Indian agriculture is confined largely to the irrigated area and rainfed crops are still as vulnerable to the vagaries of nature as ever. This impression is borne out also by the fact that the largely irrigated operations in the rabi season have become an equal contributor to the overall agricultural output. The most important lesson to be learnt from this experience is that while rainfed farming needs greater attention from the research and development point of view, irrigation brooks no neglect.

Unfortunately, both these areas have suffered from lack of attention in the recent past. No new major or medium irrigation project has been envisaged after the Sixth Plan. The priorities in this area need to be set right forthwith.