Sonia Makes A Difference

But as a former UK prime minister, Harold Wilson, once so ruefully explained, a week is a long time in politics. As the BJP president, L K Advani, has reluctantly admitted, the BJP is re-discovering this truth now. It seems to have been wrong in its assumptions about the Gandhi familys hold over the people of India. As a result, three successive opinion polls there wont be any more because the Election Commission has banned them after February 14 have predicted a narrowing of the gap between the Congress and the BJP. The Congress, it now seems, might win as many 175 seats as opposed to the 150 or less expected earlier. This will not be at the expense mainly of the BJP but of the United Front (mainly the Janata Dal and the Telugu Desam which will become the chief victims of the Sonia factor).

 

So why worry, the naive in the BJP might ask. After all, the BJP will remain the single largest party and, along with its allies (Shiv Sena, Akalis, Samata Party and TDP (NTR), it will win what it was expected to win, namely, around 235-240 seats. As such, it will get the first shot at forming the government and then be free to put together a majority as originally planned. But these optimists overlook an important difference between a Congress parliamentary party of 150 and one of 175, especially if the UF is in tatters.

The difference is that it will be easier to pull down the BJP-led government because the Congress will almost certainly have the backing of the United Front, and between them they will enjoy a comfortable majority if the latest polls are right. In fact, even V P Singh who campaigned on the Bofors platform in 1989 and defeated Rajiv Gandhi, is now singing a conciliatory tune. Let bygones be bygones, he is saying about Bofors, lets not open old wounds. The message: If it is the BJP you want to halt, you can count on my support, I will do my best to persuade my friends in the UF, never mind that they are still smarting over the Congress perfidy once last March and then again last November.

The fact that a disintegrating Congress has been imbued with new life, that a resurgent BJP has been halted in its tracks, that it might be defeated in the house yet again, and that an alternative, Congress-led government is possible all this is Sonia Gandhis doing. That a complete novice in politics can make this amazing a difference within a matter of three weeks is an astonishing achievement.