BJP stays firm in Assam: Hindu consolidation, women's schemes help big win

BJP-led NDA heads for a third straight term in Assam, crossing the 100-seat mark, while Congress records its worst-ever showing amid polarised campaigning and welfare push

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was on course to secure its best ever performance in the 126-member Assam Assembly, winning 82 seats, while its principal opponent, the Congress, sank to its worst ever performance in the state, and was struggling to win 20 seats.

 

The ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA), which the BJP leads, was set to cross the 100-seat mark, winning a third successive term after the counting of votes on Monday. The BJP’s 82-seat win was the first time that the party has crossed the majority mark in the state on its own, better than the 60 seats it had won in both 2016 and 2021 elections. Its allies, the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) and the Bodo People’s Front, were on course to win 10 seats each.

 

 

The NDA’s victory was founded on the state government’s investments in public infrastructure, its outreach to women with its Orunodoi 3.0 scheme, delimitation of constituencies in 2023, and Hindu consolidation emanating from its polarising campaign to evict “infiltrators” — a branding used to describe Bengali-speaking Muslims.

 

As much as 34.22 per cent of Assam’s population comprises Muslims. Of which, 30 per cent are estimated to be Bengali speaking Bangladeshi-origin Muslims, also called “miyas” in Assam. The rest are indigenous Assamese speaking Muslims, including communities like Gorias, Moriyas, Jolhas, Deshis, and Syeds. The BJP did not field a single Muslim candidate. However, its ally Asom Gana Parishad fielded 13 Muslim candidates in the 26 seats that it was contesting — mostly the ones the Congress hoped to win.

 

Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, who came under attack from the Congress over his family’s business deals, retained his Jalukbari seat. Pradyut Bordoloi, who had crossed over from the Congress to the BJP few weeks before the Assembly polls, also won from Dispur and could be a key minister in the next government.

 

Sarma said the people of the state punished the Congress for politicising singer Zubeen Garg's death. He claimed that barring one or two, there will be no Hindu MLAs in the Opposition, and urged "good" Hindu Congress leaders to join the BJP to secure the state's future and fight the "aggression" of "Bangladeshi Miyas". Sarma also asserted that India will remain a Hindu nation till the Sun and the Moon exist. "Hat-trick with a century!" he said in a post on X.

 

The Congress-led Asom Sonmilito Morcha also comprised the Akhil Gogoi-led Raijor Dal and Lurinjyoti Gogoi-led Assam Jatiya Parishad. Lok Sabha MP Gaurav Gogoi, who led the Congress campaign, lost from the Jorhat seat to sitting BJP MLA Hitendra Nath Goswami by 23,181 votes. Lurinjyoti’s party couldn’t win any seats, including his own.

 

Assam BJP President Dilip Saikia attributed the win to “all Sanatani and indigenous people” accepting the alliance wholeheartedly. “People came out in large numbers and voted to secure the future of indigenous people," Saikia said. The BJP leader said electors rejected Congress’ "anti-Assam and pro-Bangladeshi" stance. He said the party’s central leadership will decide the next chief minister.

 

The BJP’s poll campaign was “women driven”, built on Sarma transferring a consolidated ₹9,000 under the state government’s Orunodoi scheme, first launched in 2018, to 4 million women, a total amount of ₹3,600 crore. The ₹9,000 was four months of regular assistance of ₹1,250 and ₹4,000 special Bihu bonus to celebrate Bohag Bihu. Sarma, 57, also cultivated for himself the image of the state’s favourite “mama”, or maternal uncle. His high energy campaigning style involved milling among people in public meetings, with a significant number of attendees comprising women. The BJP promised to increase the monthly allowance under the scheme to ₹3,000 in a phased manner over the next five years, and also to provide two free cooking gas cylinders a year.

 

The BJP, and the larger Sangh Parivar, has also worked on the ground to encourage the celebration of Ram Navami and Hanuman Jayanti in the state, with women at the forefront of these celebrations. It also reached out to Assamese speaking Muslims, as a significant section of the community supported the BJP in the 2021 Assembly polls.

 

Another feature of the BJP-led NDA’s rule in the state has been its focus on capital expenditure, which has involved construction of flyovers, bridges and expanding the state’s road network. The party, however, foregrounded its resolve to “drive out infiltrators”, an allusion to the Bengali speaking Muslims of Bangladeshi origin, and remove them from the land that the party says the community has encroached upon, in its campaign. The impact could be seen in the election results with almost all of the Congress’ seats being won by its Muslim candidates.

 

It further hobbled the Congress-led alliance that it had to vie for votes from its support base with the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF), and Trinamool Congress in Lower Assam and Barak Valley, and with the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha, which fielded 16 candidates, in areas inhabited by tea tribes.