State Assembly elections test Modi's handling of war-driven shortages

While Modi's BJP seeks to expand its foothold in states dominated by regional parties, the elections come as India faces an uncertain growth outlook after a surge in oil prices following West Asia war

By Swati Gupta

 

Prime Minister Narendra Modi faces a key electoral test as voters in key Indian states head to the polls, with his handling of cooking gas shortages and industrial disruptions triggered by the West Asia crisis emerging as a central issue.

 

The month-long regional polls kick off Thursday, with millions of voters across four states and a federally administered territory. Voting begins in Assam, Kerala and the coastal Puducherry, followed by Tamil Nadu and West Bengal later in April. Results for all regions will be announced on May 4.

 

While Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party seeks to expand its foothold in states dominated by regional parties, the elections come as India faces an uncertain growth outlook after a surge in oil prices following US and Israeli strikes on Iran. A tentative ceasefire was announced this week, but the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for India’s oil imports, for over a month left Indian households and industries grappling with acute shortages of cooking gas.

 

 

“There is a great deal of anxiety among people regarding shortage of fuel and we will have to see how it plays out when they are casting their votes,” said Rasheed Kidwai, a visiting fellow at the New Delhi-based Observer Research Foundation. “The West Asia crisis is worrying the government more than the opposition.”

 

The BJP is also seeking to make significant gains in the eastern state of West Bengal, and in Tamil Nadu, one of India’s wealthiest states. It has never won power in either state.  

 

The elections will also test whether Modi’s development-led agenda can gain traction in southern India, where voters have been less receptive to the BJP’s messaging. The party’s mix of welfare delivery, Hindu nationalism and economic promises has worked well in more populous northern states. In the south, stronger social indicators, regional identities and dominant local parties have limited its appeal.

 

Assam 

Assam has backed the BJP-led alliance in the past two elections, with campaigns shaped by Hindu nationalism and illegal immigration from neighboring Muslim-majority Bangladesh. The state, divided on ethnic and linguistic lines, has seen a surge in support for the BJP, especially after a citizenship register that left millions, mostly Muslims, at risk of losing legal status.

 

The party wrested control from the Indian National Congress, which has since struggled to regain momentum.

 

Kerala 

Kerala has alternated for decades between governments led by a coalition of Communist parties and a Congress-led alliance. The BJP is a minor player in the state’s politics and failed to win a seat in the 2021 state elections. The Left Democratic Front, an alliance led by the Communist Party of India (Marxist), has been in power since 2016.

 

The West Asia crisis is expected to significantly impact Kerala, with more than 80% of its roughly two million emigrants based in Gulf countries and remittances totaling $23.3 billion, according to the 2023 Kerala Migration Survey. 

 

West Bengal 

One of the larger states, West Bengal sends 42 lawmakers to the federal parliament making it politically influential. Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee of the All India Trinamool Congress is seeking a fourth consecutive term after ending decades of Communist rule in 2011. The BJP has traditionally struggled to make inroads amid the state’s strong regional and cultural identity.

 

In previous campaigns, the BJP has raised the issue of illegal immigration from Bangladesh, with the home minister in 2018 referring to such migrants as “termites.” With the revision of electoral rolls, opposition leaders have alleged that the BJP is using the Election Commission of India to strike out voters favoring the opposition. The BJP and the election body have denied the allegations.

 

A BJP victory in West Bengal against Banerjee’s party would strengthen Modi’s position and expand his party’s presence beyond the Hindi-speaking regions of North India.

 

The state will vote in two phases on April 23 and April 29.

 

Tamil Nadu 

As one of India’s most industrialized states, Tamil Nadu has been hugely successful in courting foreign investments and is home to car factories, hardware manufacturing and key facilities for Apple’s iPhone production. The state is also home to some of India’s most fiercely independent regional political parties.

 

The Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam or DMK, led by M.K. Stalin came to power in 2021 and has rolled out a series of welfare measures to counter the opposition alliance, which includes the BJP, such as an 8,000 rupee ($86.37) coupon for women to purchase household items. The BJP is a minority partner in the opposition alliance, led by the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam party. The AIADMK, in turn has promised free refrigerators, a 10,000 rupee cash handout and free bus travel for men.

 

The DMK, allied with the Congress party, is campaigning against the opposition’s Hindu nationalist movement promoted by the BJP and highlighting the damage it would inflict on the state’s regional and cultural identity. 

 

Puducherry 

The union territory is tucked along India’s southeastern coast and has a population of more than 1 million. On April 9, the territory will be voting for 30 legislators. 

 

The main political player is the regional All India N.R. Congress, which is in power alongside the BJP. The opposition is led by an alliance of DMK and the Congress party.