PM Modi's Indonesia visit key to rules-based Indo-Pacific order: Experts

Modi will travel to Indonesia from July 6 to 8 - his fourth visit to the country but first bilateral trip since May 2018, the MEA said at a briefing last week in New Delhi

Eight years after his last bilateral visit, Prime Minister Narendra Modi will travel to Indonesia this week - at a time, experts say, the Indo-Pacific needs New Delhi and Jakarta to work closely together.

"India and Indonesia occupy pivotal geographic positions at either end of the Indian Ocean and both have an interest in preserving a stable, inclusive and rules-based regional order," said Fitriani, senior analyst with the Australian Strategic Policy Institute.

Hadza Min Fadhli Robby, associate professor at Islamic University of Indonesia, said: "A stable and secure regional order will help the Indian economy to thrive amidst possible instability in both West Asia and the South China Sea."  Modi will travel to Indonesia from July 6 to 8 - his fourth visit to the country but first bilateral trip since May 2018, the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) said at a briefing last week in New Delhi.

 

Modi will hold talks with President Prabowo Subianto, address the diaspora in Jakarta and visit the Prambanan Temple complex, a UNESCO World Heritage Site, before flying to Australia and New Zealand, the MEA said.

The visit "comes at a time when the Indo-Pacific is experiencing growing geopolitical competition, increasing concern over maritime security, and renewed attention to supply chain resilience," said Fitriani, who identifies herself by first name.

Fitrani further said the trip carries forward "the momentum" generated by Subianto's visit to New Delhi last year, when he was chief guest at India's Republic Day celebrations.

"The fact that Indonesia is the first stop of Prime Minister Modi's (latest) Indo-Pacific tour demonstrates the importance New Delhi attaches to Jakarta within its Act East and Indo-Pacific strategies," she added.

Robby looked at the visit through the lens of wider geopolitical developments.

"PM Modi's visit to Indonesia is significant in light of the turbulent dynamics in both the Indo-Pacific regional order and the global order. Both countries are known for their commitment to strengthening multilateralism on both regional and global platforms," he said, pointing to joint military training and bilateral consultations as proof of that commitment.

On maritime connectivity, Robby highlighted the long-stalled Sabang-Nicobar corridor which would connect Indonesia's Sabang Port with India's Nicobar Islands.

"There have been talks regarding the establishment of the Sabang-Nicobar corridor, but these have not come to fruition yet due to technical issues and a lack of political will. Perhaps this is the right time to restart such talks and renew their commitment," he said.

Fitriani expects the visit to yield "several practical outcomes in the form of memorandum of understanding rather than dramatic breakthroughs", with "maritime security cooperation" remaining central, alongside deeper coordination through regional groupings such as the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA) and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).

A potential BrahMos missile deal looms large, both experts said.

"The acquisition of the BrahMos missile system has been a subject of debate recently in the Indonesian parliament," Robby said, noting that Indonesia's fiscal crisis has prompted lawmakers to question its timing.

"Regardless of the domestic debate, the acquisition of the BrahMos will still proceed, as the Indonesian Ministry of Finance has secured the budget," he added.

He framed the purchase, alongside Russian systems, as proof that Jakarta "does not limit its vision of military cooperation by solely relying on arms purchases from NATO countries" - a lesson drawn from the 1990s arms embargo Indonesia faced from the US and the European Union.

Fitriani called the potential BrahMos deal strategically significant for both sides.

"For India, it would represent another major defence export success... For Indonesia, the acquisition would strengthen its coastal defence and anti-access capabilities," she said, adding it would signal that "middle powers in the Indo-Pacific are becoming more proactive in building deterrence capabilities."  On the economic track, Fitriani said "critical minerals will be a major topic of discussion," since "Indonesia possesses substantial reserves of nickel and other critical minerals that are essential for batteries and electric vehicles, while India is seeking to strengthen its manufacturing ecosystem."  Robby pushed for "a common platform for youth entrepreneurs and digital industry stakeholders from both countries," along with academic cooperation, arguing Indian and Indonesian scholars can make significant contributions to advancing a Global South perspective.