Monsoon likely to hit Kerala in 4-5 days, says IMD in early onset alert

IMD predicts early arrival of southwest monsoon in Kerala, rules out El Niño risk; heavy rains continue to disrupt life in Bengaluru and Guwahati

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Tuesday said the southwest monsoon is likely to arrive in Kerala within the next four to five days—well ahead of its normal onset date of June 1. 

 

The weather department had previously predicted that the monsoon would reach Kerala by May 27.

 

Earliest onset since 2009?

 

If the monsoon arrives in Kerala as anticipated, it would mark the earliest onset over mainland India since 2009, when it began on May 23, according to IMD data.

 

Typically, the southwest monsoon arrives in Kerala around June 1 and extends across the entire country by July 8. It begins withdrawing from northwest India around September 17 and completely recedes by October 15.

 

 

In recent years, onset dates were:

 

May 30 (2024)

 

June 8 (2023)

 

May 29 (2022)

 

June 3 (2021)

 

June 1 (2020)

 

The earliest recent onset occurred on May 23 in 2009.

 

IMD defines 'normal' rainfall as 96–104 per cent of the 50-year average of 87 cm.

 

No El Niño threat this year

 

In April, the IMD forecast above-normal cumulative rainfall for the 2025 monsoon season and ruled out the likelihood of El Niño conditions, which are usually linked to below-average rainfall in India.

 

The absence of El Niño signals a potentially strong monsoon, which is crucial for agricultural output and rural demand in the country.

 

Bengaluru reels under continued rain

 

Meanwhile, heavy rains continued to batter Bengaluru, causing severe waterlogging and traffic gridlocks across the city.

 

In one tragic incident, two people—including a 12-year-old—were electrocuted while trying to drain water from a flooded apartment.

 

Commuters struggled to book autos and cabs during morning hours on Monday, with several arterial roads submerged. 

ALSO READ: Bengaluru flooded again |  Bengaluru on yellow alert 

 

Guwahati submerged after overnight downpour

 

In Assam’s Guwahati, overnight rain led to widespread flooding in residential areas and on major roads.

 

Knee-deep water was reported in several parts of the city, while in some low-lying zones, water levels rose to chest height. Vehicular movement was severely disrupted, and visuals from the city showed residents wading through submerged streets.