Why is the government safe?

Pranab Mukherjee is a careful man. He may not always be loyal, he may not always be sincere. But he is always  careful: which is why he is where is.

Because of precisely this trait, consider what he told Parliament on 7 December 2011, when the government at that famous late night cabinet meeting, had to suspend the decision to invite Foreign Direct Investment in retail.

Railway Minister Dinesh Trivedi at that meeting had contradicted Commerce Minister Anand Sharma’s claim that Trinamool Congress had been convinced into endorsing FDI in retail. “Not at all” Trivedi had said staunchly, refusing to wilt under the baleful glares from Kapil Sibal and P Chidambaram in his direction. (Dinesh Trivedi, the then TMC representative on the cabinet managed successfully to sidestep contentious issue like FDI in retail when it came before the Cabinet. But on one occasion Pranab Mukherjee told Trivedi to keep quiet : "You are a first timer in the Cabinet." Trivedi cut him short.

 

He said, "I'm not your student and you're not my headmaster. I am an elected MP and a minister of a separate political party." )
The UPA had to bow to ally as well as internal pressure.

What Mukherjee told Parliament (a few days later when the opposition prevented the Lok Sabha from functioning) was: “the decision to permit 51% FDI in multibrand retail has been suspended till consensus through consultation with various stakeholders – stakeholders being chief ministers and political parties, for the decision cannot be implemented without the chief ministers – is reached”. Everyone knows: consensus is not unanimity. There have been two rounds of consultations with Trinamool Congress, and all the political parties which are still opposed to the decision. FDI in retail has been left to the wisdom of Chief Minister: those who want it can have it, those who don’t needn’t.

Which is why the BJP’s cries that the government has violated an assurance it gave on the floor of the House are simply not correct. Mercifully, the Left parties are not saying the government has perjured itself: they have mounted a highly successful imposition of the Bharat Bandh in West Bengal that could script their revival.

A special session of Parliament so that the BJP can cross question the United Progressive Alliance on its FDI in retail assurance, as well test its numerical majority is not happening: not even when Mamata Banerjee conveys formally to the President that the TMC can no longer support the government.

This is because the government already has on record, two letters from two other parties – the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party, numbering 22 and 19 MPs respectively. These letters were given when the UPA came to power for a second time in 2009. The letter have not been torn up, they have not been withdrawn, they have not been countermanded. They are still there, on the record.

So even after Mamata Banerjee’s exit, the government has not gone into minority, it does not have to seek a trust vote, and if it does, it will win it. Knowing this the BJP is saying it won’t press a trust vote, seeking to turn a handicap into a strength.

The government is safe. But will it be effective? This remains to be seen.