Will the market witness a bull-trap or a short-covering rally on Nifty futures & options expiry day; here are the key levels to watch out for as per market experts.
Sahaj Agrawal of Kotak Securities recommends a Nifty Bull Call Spread in F&O for the upcoming May 29 expiry.
F&O market cues: FIIs hold nearly 2 short positions in index futures for every long trade; DIIs net sold over 34,000 contracts in the last 2 days, shows NSE data.
The short-term trend of the Bank Nifty index is positive as it is placed above its 5,11, and 20-day EMA
A Bull Call Spread is recommended to capture the anticipated rally while maintaining a defined risk-reward framework, says Sahaj Agrawal
FIIs net sold stocks and futures worth ₹6,668.28 crore on Tuesday. Open positions declined by 15%, and long-short ratio in index futures dropped to 0.6 in last three trading days, shows NSE F&O data.
Short build up is seen in the Indigo Futures, where we have seen 6 per cent rise in open interest with price falling by 4 per cent.
FIIs net bought over 30,000 contracts of Nifty futures in the last five days; thereby taking their long-short ratio to 0.94 - its highest point since October 4, 2024; shows the NSE derivatives data.
The NSE F&O data shows that domestic institutional investors offloaded over 36,000 contracts of index futures in the last 8 days, while the Nifty 50 index rose nearly 4 per cent.
The BSE derivatives data suggests that the Sensex may face resistance around 80,450 - 80,550, while seek support around 79,850 - 79,700 levels on the monthly expiry day on Tuesday.
Data from NSE shows that retail investors have turned net bearish in index futures for the first time in six months; while DIIs remain the most bullish among market participants.
From down 8%, to up over 3% - the NSE Nifty 50 index seems poised to end higher for the 11th time in the last 13 April months; also a relatively shorter F&O series in terms of trading sessions.
Historical data shows that the Nifty has ended higher in most of the April F&O series in the last 12 years; the average gain for the NSE benchmark has been over 3 per cent.
In the previous session, Sensex gained 592.93 points (0.78 per cent) to close at 76,617.44, while Nifty50 rose 166.65 points (0.72 per cent) to settle at 23,332.35
NSE derivatives data shows that FIIs are least bearish since December 13; DIIs most bullish in more than a year, while retail investors have turned cautious.
Bank Nifty rollovers stood at 69.3 per cent, which was higher than the 3-month average and indicates positive sentiment at the counter, said Axis Securities report.
FIIs net bought 35,901 contracts of Nifty futures and 31,258 contracts of Bank Nifty in the last 4 days; DIIs bullish bets in index futures at highest in more than a year, shows NSE F&O data.
As per the data from the NSE F&O segment, foreign institutional investors now hold 3 short positions in index futures for every long trade as against 5 bearish bets held earlier.
According data from the NSE F&O segment, Tube Investments of India and PI Industries witnessed some short-covering in the week ended March 13, 2025.
Derivatives market data shows that open bets in Nifty and Bank Nifty futures declined up to 8% yesterday; with FIIs covering some short bets, however they still hold significant shorts positions.