From Congress bastion to BJP stronghold: How Assam's politics has evolved

Assam is set to vote on April 9 in a closely watched election, with the BJP aiming to retain power and the Congress hoping to regain ground in a state shaped by identity politics and alliances

Assam will vote on April 9 to elect 126 members to its Legislative Assembly in a closely watched contest between the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the Congress-led opposition.

 

The election is seen as an important political test. It will show whether the NDA, led by Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, can win a third consecutive term in the state, or whether the Congress -- led by Gaurav Gogoi -- can make a comeback. The opposition camp also includes regional parties such as the Assam Jatiya Parishad and Raijor Dal.

 

The election is also politically significant because debates around citizenship and migration continue to influence campaigns. Issues linked to the National Register of Citizens and the Citizenship Amendment Act have remained part of political campaigns.

 

 

Why Assam matters for BJP, Congress

 

Assam is one of Northeast India's most politically influential states, and developments there often affect politics across the region.

 

Since the 1980s, the state’s politics has gone through three broad phases: the rise of regional parties, a long period of Congress rule and the more recent consolidation of the BJP-led alliance.

 

For the BJP, the election is a major test of the political model built under Sarma since the party first came to power in 2016. The party has tried to bring together a wide coalition that includes Assamese caste-Hindu voters, tribal communities, tea garden workers and Bengali Hindus.

 

For the Congress, which once ruled the entire Northeast, this election offers a chance to regain control in a state where it once ruled for 15 consecutive years.

 

From Congress dominance to BJP’s rise

 

A turning point in Assam politics came after the Assam Accord in 1985. The regional Asom Gana Parishad came to power after emerging from the anti-foreigner movement, marking the first time a regional party defeated the Congress in the state.

 

However, the party later struggled with internal divisions and governance challenges. It returned to power briefly in 1996 but gradually lost influence.

 

The Congress regained dominance under Tarun Gogoi, who led the state for 15 consecutive years. His tenure brought political stability and the party consolidated support among minority communities.

 

The rise of the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) in 2006 changed the political landscape, but Congress continued to remain strong until the early 2010s.

 

The BJP’s breakthrough came in 2016, when it formed the government for the first time in Assam. The party built alliances with regional players and focused on issues such as protection of “Jati-Mati-Bheti” -- identity, land and homeland.

 

A key moment in the BJP’s rise was the defection of Himanta Biswa Sarma from the Congress in 2015. He later became chief minister in 2021.   

 

Assam’s social and demographic profile

 

Assam’s social and demographic structure strongly shapes its politics. The state has a population of around 35 million, with over 80 per cent living in rural areas. About 60 per cent of the population is Hindu, while Muslims account for around one-third and tribal communities around 13 per cent.

 

The state’s population includes Assamese-speaking communities, tribal groups, tea garden workers, Bengali Hindus and Bengali-origin Muslims.

 

Geography also influences politics. The Brahmaputra River valley and the Barak Valley have different linguistic and religious compositions. Riverine “char” areas and districts near the Bangladesh border often face issues related to land and migration.

 

Assam’s 126 assembly seats are spread across regions such as Upper Assam, Lower Assam and the Barak Valley.

 

Regional voting patterns in Assam

 

Electoral competition in Assam varies widely by region. The BJP and its allies have built strong bases in upper Assam and urban areas, including cities like Guwahati and Dibrugarh, where Assamese caste-Hindu voters and sections of tribal communities form an important support base.

 

The Congress remains influential in some parts of eastern Assam, including areas around Jorhat, and among sections of minority voters. Regional parties also hold influence in areas with strong ethnic identities, particularly in the Bodoland Territorial Region.

 

Because of these overlapping social groups, electoral contests in many constituencies remain highly competitive.

 

Caste, tribe and community politics

 

Several social groups play a key role in Assam’s electoral politics. One important bloc is the Assamese caste-Hindu population, which has historically been influential in state politics.

 

Tribal communities, including the Bodos and other plains tribes, also hold political influence, particularly in areas with autonomous councils.

 

Another key group is the tea tribe. They are descendants of labourers brought to Assam during the colonial period to work on tea plantations. They are concentrated mainly in Upper Assam and parts of the Barak Valley and can influence outcomes in more than 35 constituencies.

 

Traditionally seen as supporters of the Congress, the tea tribe vote has become more contested in recent years as parties compete by offering welfare schemes, wage increases and promises of land rights.   

 

Identity, migration and land issues

 

Questions around migration and citizenship remain central to political debates in Assam. Issues such as infiltration from Bangladesh, land encroachment and protection of indigenous communities frequently appear in campaign speeches.

 

These concerns are linked to earlier processes such as the National Register of Citizens and broader debates around citizenship.

 

For many voters in the state, questions of land ownership, identity and demographic change remain politically sensitive.

 

Jobs, tea industry and the economy

 

Assam’s economy depends largely on agriculture, tea plantations, oil and gas production and services linked to the government sector.

 

The tea industry remains especially important. Tea garden workers often face challenges such as low wages, health issues and limited access to basic services. Welfare policies targeting tea garden areas therefore play a major role in election campaigns.

 

Youth unemployment and limited industrial growth are also key concerns for voters.

 

According to estimates by the PRS Legislative Research, Assam’s gross state domestic product for 2025-26 is projected at about ₹7.42 trillion, indicating moderate economic growth but also showing the need for more development.

 

How delimitation changed the electoral map

 

The 2026 elections will be the first Assembly polls after a delimitation exercise carried out in 2023. While the total number of seats remains 126, the number of reserved constituencies has changed. Seats reserved for Scheduled Tribes increased to 19, while Scheduled Caste seats rose to nine.

 

Several constituencies were reorganised or renamed, and the new boundaries are expected to influence electoral strategies.

 

Assam polls 2026: What to watch

 

As voters head to the polls, analysts will closely watch whether the BJP’s combination of identity politics, welfare schemes and regional alliances continues to work across Assam’s diverse communities.

 

At the same time, issues such as tea worker welfare, land rights, migration debates and flood vulnerability may also influence voting behaviour in many Assembly seats.