'RBI policy pause supports growth; balanced response to currency weakness'

Sarvjit Singh Samra of Capital Small Finance Bank said that RBI MPC has appropriately refrained from deploying interest rates as a tool to counter the recent weakness in the rupee.

The Monetary Policy Committee’s decision to hold the repo rate at 5.25 per cent and retain a neutral stance is a measured and well-thought response to a materially changed macro environment. After delivering a cumulative 125 basis points of policy easing between February and December 2025, the RBI has already provided substantial monetary support to the economy. The priority now is not further reduction. It ensures that the previous cycle completes its journey through the financial system. 

This pause should not be read as hesitation. It reflects a clear-eyed assessment of where risks now sit. The West Asia conflict has pushed Brent crude above $110 a barrel. The rupee has weakened to record lows below ₹95 per dollar. These are not marginal developments. They have shifted the inflation trajectory in ways that make additional easing, at this point, premature.

 

Inflation risks are real and supply-driven

The RBI has revised its FY27 CPI inflation projection upward to 5.1 per cent from 4.6 per cent, reflecting heightened risks arising from elevated global energy prices, geopolitical tensions, exchange-rate movements and broader commodity price pressures. These are largely supply-side pressures rather than signs of demand overheating. The additional monetary easing would have limited impact in addressing them and could, in fact, complicate the inflation management task. Against this backdrop, maintaining policy stability allows the RBI to preserve macroeconomic balance while remaining vigilant to evolving inflationary risks. 

The FY27 inflation projection of 5.1 per cent remains the right anchor for India’s monetary framework. Protecting that anchor in a period of external stress is not conservatism. It is the foundation on which durable credit growth and household income stability are built. The IMD’s April long-range forecast has also flagged El Niño development during the southwest monsoon season. Food price risks throughout the kharif season remain a live concern.  READ | RBI's external sector reforms to boost rupee, forex reserves: JM Fin AMC

Transmission needs time, not another cut

The more compelling argument for a pause, from a banking perspective, is the state of monetary transmission. Rate cuts do not result in cheaper loans on the day they are announced. For banks that depend on retail term deposits, the process works on a different cycle. Deposit rates reset at maturity, not on policy dates.  

A period of policy stability is what allows this repricing to happen in an orderly way, without compressing margins to a point where banks become cautious on fresh credit deployment.

MPC's balanced response to currency

The MPC has appropriately refrained from deploying interest rates as a tool to counter the recent weakness in the rupee. The prevailing currency pressures stem primarily from a geopolitical risk premium embedded in global energy markets, following the sharp escalation in crude oil prices amid the West Asia crisis. 

Given that the depreciation is being driven by an external terms-of-trade shock rather than any deterioration in India's economic fundamentals or demand-side inflationary excesses, maintaining the policy stance reflects sound macroeconomic judgment and preserves support for domestic growth. The banking sector is well placed to absorb the pause. 

The RBI has revised its FY27 real GDP growth forecast downward to 6.6 per cent from 6.9 per cent earlier, reflecting a more challenging global economic environment and heightened external uncertainties. Growth is moderating, not deteriorating. The banking sector enters this period from a position of genuine strength. The gross NPA ratio of scheduled commercial banks has fallen to 1.73 per cent in March 2026, as per the RBI MPC announcement, down from 9.11 per cent in March 2021. Net NPAs stand at 0.40 per cent. Balance sheets are clean, capital buffers are adequate, and structural reforms expanding credit access in MSME, agri and affordable housing segments continue to widen the formal credit market. 

A hold today that protects the inflation anchor and allows transmission to complete is more valuable than a cut that delivers marginal relief on paper while complicating the policy path ahead. India’s growth fundamentals remain intact. Far from signalling caution, this pause reflects confidence that India's underlying economic fundamentals remain strong enough to support sustainable growth.  READ | 'Vigilance & flexibility: RBI's message as inflation, crude risks loom'

Policy discipline encourages macroeconomic stability

This policy stance is particularly constructive for Small Finance Banks, which serve as vital financial intermediaries for India's aspiring middle-income households and entrepreneurial communities across semi-urban and rural markets. By avoiding an unnecessary increase in borrowing costs, the MPC has helped preserve credit affordability, sustain consumption and investment momentum, and support economic activity at the grassroots level. 

For Small Finance Banks with a strong presence in semi-urban and rural markets, this policy continuity reinforces a conducive environment for responsible credit expansion, deeper financial inclusion, and sustainable long-term value creation.

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  (Disclaimer: This article is by Sarvjit Singh Samra, MD & CEO, Capital Small Finance Bank. View expressed are his own.)